The French far-right politician Marine Le Pen has been found guilty of embezzling European Parliament funds over a 12-year-period. In a ruling that will shake both French and European politics, the Paris court ruled that she is ineligible from running for any political office with immediate effect -- meaning she most likely is out of the presidential race that is scheduled to take place in the spring of 2027 at the latest.
She left the courtroom without comment. While she can appeal the ruling, any such step could take years -- potentially spelling the end of her political career.
Le Pen, who faced a run-off against current President Emmanuel Macron in both the 2017 and 2022 races, was considered the early favorite to become the Fifth Republic’s first female president.
Already in 2022, she received 41.5 percent in the second round, the best score ever of the French far right in a presidential bid.
With Macron barred from running for a third term, Le Pen was set to be the most recognizable face in the upcoming elections, and early polls indicated she would beat any presumptive candidate from the mainstream left or right.
Whitewashing The National Front
Le Pen took over the National Front from Jean-Marie Le Pen back in 2011, rebranded it National Rally, and tried to whitewash its image by distancing the party and herself from some of her father’s more openly racist and antisemitic past.
She has remained highly critical of immigration and Islam and wants to take France out of NATO's integrated military command.
However, she has backtracked on her previous promises to take the country out of the EU and the eurozone.
Her party was granted a much-publicized loan by a Russian bank back in 2014, and while she has been widely supportive of Moscow in the past and criticized the EU’s sanctions against the Kremlin, she has been supportive of France accepting Ukrainian refugees.
Following the March 31 ruling, the Kremlin said it "deplored the violation of democratic norms."
European officials, speaking under condition of anonymity, had hoped she would potentially moderate further in office, following perhaps in the footsteps of right-wing Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who largely has been seen as competent and cooperative in Brussels.
They did, however, cautioned that the National Rally always has positioned itself farther to the right and is a key founder of the Patriots for Europe political family together with the Hungarian ruling party Fidesz, whose leader, Viktor Orban, immediately voiced his support for Le Pen on X.
The question is what will happen to her party now.
Eight other former members of the European Parliament from the National Rally were sentenced alongside Le Pen of diverting millions of euros from European Parliament funds to pay France-based staff between 2004 and 2016, prompting the question of whether the movement can survive such a blow.
What's Next For France's Far Right?
Jordan Bardella -- who took over as the official National Rally leader back in 2021 and has been groomed as Le Pen's natural successor -- remains directly untainted by the scandal.
But can Bardella muster the same pulling power as Le Pen? Only 29, he is seen as too young and too inexperienced. While the National Rally managed to finish first in European Parliament elections in last June, the party's failure to repeat that success in national parliamentary elections later that summer raises questions about his standing.
It remains to be seen how the electorate will respond to the ruling. Many European politicians were shocked by the stinging criticism from US Vice President JD Vance earlier this year over the cancellation of the first round of Romania's presidential election in December following allegations of Russian interference on behalf of independent candidate Calin Georgescu, who surprisingly finished first.
We can expect a similar blowback this time as many on the populist right will brand this "lawfare" against politicians who aren't considered politically mainstream, and Marine Le Pen has just become their "cause celebre par excellence" who can propel them to score even higher grievance votes going forward.
