Could Hungarian Cardinal Erdo Succeed Pope Francis?

With the passing of Pope Francis on April 21, the speculation about who will succeed him as head of the Holy See is already in full swing. One of the front-runners, at least according to bookmakers, is Peter Erdo, the archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest.

The 72-year-old Hungarian cardinal has held several prominent roles within the Catholic Church in recent decades and was a potential candidate to become the bishop of Rome back in 2013, when Francis ultimately was chosen.

So what chances does Erdo have to replace the Argentine? And perhaps more interestingly, what is his relationship with Hungary's increasingly authoritarian conservative prime minister, Viktor Orban?

Who Is Peter Erdo?

Make no mistake about it, Erdo is very much "papabile" -- a term used for candidates who are regarded as viable for the papacy.

Technically any baptized Catholic male is eligible, but ever since the 14th century only cardinals, the senior members of the clergy, have been selected. Currently there are 252 cardinals, but that number dwindles to 135 with voting power, as only those under 80 can cast a ballot.

Erdo could manage to secure the necessary two-thirds of the vote at the Papal Conclave that is set to commence in early May (no earlier than 16 days after the pope's passing, according to the current rules).

His cardinal resume is glittering. Between 2006 and 2016 he headed the Council of European Episcopal Conferences, a key organization representing Europe's Catholic bishops.

This is not without significance, as European cardinals still form the biggest voting bloc in the upcoming conclave. But it's not only the European credentials he has honed.

Heading the council meant that he has been in regular contact with the African, Asian, and Latin American equivalences, building up lots of links with the Global South, seen as the emerging powerhouses of the church.

The fact that he is fluent in both Italian and Latin -- two crucial languages for higher offices in this part of Rome -- and is a recognized expert in canonical law, which governs the way the Catholic Church is run, also puts him good stead among a select few.

Perhaps his crowning achievement is to have secured the International Eucharistic Congress for his hometown, Budapest, in 2021.

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The congress, which typically takes place every four years, is a massive gathering of both clergy, including the pope, as well as common practitioners and involves big open-air masses.

This provided him with a perfect platform both for visibility and to secure the necessary contacts both within the Vatican and across the Catholic parishes of the world.

Perhaps his biggest strength, though, and the reason he might prevail in the end, is his pragmatism.

Although Erdo is seen as a conservative who, for example, openly speaks out against divorced Catholics receiving holy communion, he cooperated with the more progressive Francis and refrained from criticizing him openly, unlike others on the traditionalist flank.

The pope even tapped him to help organize special Vatican meetings on family issues, and Francis visited Hungary twice during his 12-year tenure.

Is Erdo Linked To Viktor Orban?

But what about Erdo's links to Hungary's ruling Fidesz party and Orban, who styles himself as a defender of Judeo-Christian values, notably against the EU institutions he claims are against both nations and Christianity in general?

The Hungarian state budget sponsors the Catholic Church, like many other recognized churches, in various ways and generously. It notably does this through direct support via financing of religious education, paying reparations for assets seized during the Communist regime, or simply bankrolling events like the above-mentioned International Eucharistic Congress.

Politically, during the migrant crisis that swept Europe in 2015, Erdo likened accepting migrants to facilitating human trafficking.

It was a statement that seemed more in line with the Hungarian prime minister's more combative approach than that of Pope Francis's more tolerant view on the matter.

Erdo did, however, shortly thereafter warn about turning religions against each other and questioned whether a continent really can be called Christian -- seemingly going against Orban's outspokenness about the so-called Islamization of Europe.

He seems to take the same pragmatic approach to the Hungarian government as he has with the various factions of the Catholic Church. While he himself has never openly endorsed the party, Catholic priests across the country have often told their congregations to vote for Fidesz.

Erdo has picked his fights carefully with Budapest. He has remained silent over some laws adopted in recent years but been vocal on others.

For example, he refused to openly criticize the regulation against homelessness passed in 2018 -- an issue that went against the teachings of Pope Francis.

When it came to the move by the Hungarian government to nationalize IVF clinics a year later, he did not hold out on criticism.

While most Vatican watchers still believe the Catholic Church now might select its first-ever African or Asian pope, a compromise candidate to stabilize the various fractions after the progressive and tumultuous years of Francis might very well be the primate of Hungary.